NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:MLS playoff picture: Hell is Real, El Tráfico could provide postseason clinchers

With a little more than a month to go in the 2024 MLS season,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center there's only one team that has secured its spot in the playoffs.

That's Inter Miami.

However, three teams have a chance to could join the Herons in the postseason field this weekend:

➤ FC Cincinnati

• Simplest route: Win or tie against their "Hell is Real" rival, the Columbus Crew
• Most convoluted route: Losses or ties from either Toronto FC, New England Revolution, Atlanta United, Charlotte FC or the New York Red Bulls

➤ Columbus Crew

• Simplest route: Defeat their "Hell is Real" rival, FC Cincinnati
• Most convoluted route: Philadelphia Union loss or tie, and Atlanta United loss or tie, and Toronto FC tie, and New York Red Bulls loss

➤ LA Galaxy

• Simplest route: Win against their El Tráfico rival, Los Angeles FC … then get help (in the form of a win or tie) from either Toronto FC, St. Louis City SC, San Jose Earthquakes, Houston Dynamo FC or Colorado Rapids
• Most convoluted route: If the Galaxy tie LAFC, then they'll also need Toronto FC to defeat Austin FC

Inter Miami continues to enjoy a nearly insurmountable lead in the Supporters' Shield race, seven points ahead of the LA Galaxy with a game in hand. With a win or tie against the Philadelphia Union on Saturday, Inter Miami would reach 60 points in 28 games, joining the 1998 LA Galaxy (28 games), 2019 Los Angeles FC (26 games) and 2021 New England Revolution (28 games) as the only teams in MLS history to eclipse 60 points in 28 games or fewer. That's impressive stuff when you consider that Inter Miami has managed to keep its place atop the MLS table despite missing Lionel Messi, who is finally available to play and make his first MLS appearance in more than three months.

MLS Matchday 32: What are this weekend's games?

(All games available on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.)

Saturday

• Atlanta United vs. Nashville SC, 7:30 p.m. ET
• FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew, 7:30 p.m. ET
• D.C. United vs. New York City FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union, 7:30 p.m. ET
• CF Montréal vs. Charlotte FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Orlando City SC vs. New England Revolution, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Toronto FC vs. Austin FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Houston Dynamo FC vs. Real Salt Lake, 8:30 p.m. ET
• St. Louis City SC vs. Minnesota United FC, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Colorado Rapids vs. Portland Timbers, 9:30 p.m. ET
• LA Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC, 10:30 p.m. ET
• Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes, 10:30 p.m. ET

Sunday

• Seattle Sounders FC vs. Sporting Kansas City, 7:15 p.m. ET (FS1)

What is the format for the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs?

A total of 18 teams qualify for the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs — the top nine finishers from each conference.

The eighth- and ninth-place finishers in each conference will play in wild-card matches. The top seven seeds qualify for the Round 1 best-of-three series.

When do the MLS playoffs start?

Here is the playoff schedule:

• Oct. 3: Wild-card matches (single-elimination matches)
• Oct. 26-Nov. 10: Round 1 (best-of-three series)
• Nov. 23-24: Conference semifinals (single-elimination matches)
• Nov. 30-Dec. 1: Conference finals (single-elimination matches)
• Dec. 7: MLS Cup (single winner-take-all match)

MLS CUP: Ranking every Major League Soccer championship game

MLS playoff picture: If the season ended today …

Heading into MLS Matchday 30, these would be the MLS playoff matchups through the first round …

EASTERN CONFERENCE

➤ Clinched playoff spot: Inter Miami CF

Wild-card match:

• Toronto FC (No. 8 seed) vs. D.C. United (9)

Round 1 (best-of-three series):

• Inter Miami CF (1) vs. Toronto FC-D.C. United winner
• FC Cincinnati (2) vs. Orlando City SC (7)
• Columbus Crew (3) vs. Charlotte FC (6)
• New York Red Bulls (4) vs. New York City FC (5)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Wild-card match:

• Portland Timbers (No. 8 seed) vs. Minnesota United FC (9)

Round 1 (best-of-three series):

• LA Galaxy (1) vs. Portland Timbers-Minnesota United FC winner
• Los Angeles FC (2) vs. Houston Dynamo FC (7)
• Real Salt Lake (3) vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC (6)
• Colorado Rapids (4) vs. Seattle Sounders FC (5)

MORE: 2024 MLS standings

MLS betting odds: Who is favorite to win championship?

According to BetMGM, Inter Miami CF (+165) is the current favorite to win the 2024 league championship, followed by Los Angeles FC (+500), LA Galaxy (+800), Columbus Crew (+800) and FC Cincinnati (+1200).

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