NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Four Downs and a Bracket: Bully Ball is back at Michigan and so is College Football Playoff hope

Every Saturday,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center senior national college football writer Matt Hayes breaks down four trending stories, and a 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.

First Down: Michigan: welcome back, Bully Ball

Those bruising, battering runs from Kalel Mullings. Pounding and thundering and reverberating.

All the way to Columbus, Ohio.

Michigan found itself again Saturday, a punishing 27-24 rock fight of a welcome to the Big Ten defeat of No. 12 Southern California. But look deeper, everyone.

It wasn’t so much an upset win for the suddenly shaky defending national champions as it was recommitting to a powerful run game – and sending a message to the Buckeyes.

Because while Michigan has been grinding through the first month of the season with difficult games against Texas and USC, Ohio State has been frolicking through three guarantee games and barely breaking a sweat.

But just in case Ohio State – and everyone else in the Big Ten – believed Michigan had lost its way after dominating the conference the last three seasons, the game-winning drive against USC ended that narrative.

Eight carries from Mullings on the 10-play winning touchdown drive – 4 yards, 63, 1, 8, 2, 3, 2, 1 – capped an 89-yard drive where Michigan lined up with four minutes remaining and played bully ball. Like it did all game.

The drive ended, on fourth-and-goal from the 1, with Mullings ramming over the left side for the winning points with 29 seconds to play. How dominating was the drive?

Mullings’ 63-yard run, where he dragged USC cornerback John Humphrey for eight of the yards, was the highlight. But the underlying reality for USC (and, hello, Ohio State): Trojans coach Lincoln Riley started using timeouts after the 63-yard run because he knew his defense couldn’t stop the run ― and he was desperately trying to preserve time.

Michigan had 290 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 46 carries, and more important, left no doubt where the rest of the season is headed.

Tennessee: Big Orange D stops Oklahoma

They lost concentration in the fourth quarter, and the score of a big road win in the SEC doesn’t represent the carnage that played out on the field.

But Tennessee, everyone, has an elite defense.

Oklahoma could’ve played eight quarters and not scored enough points to beat a complete Tennessee team. It’s no longer all about Volunteers coach Josh Heupel’s Blur Ball offense.

The defense is beginning to look a whole lot like those elite SEC defenses of the College Football Playoff era. A 25-15 win at Oklahoma included two forced fumbles, an interception, a safety and 11 tackles for loss.

How very Georgia of Tennessee.

And that’s the point of Saturday night’s exercise in Norman, Okla. Tennessee had been defense optional for much of Heupel’s first three seasons in Knoxville.

Now this Tennessee team looks a lot like the Oklahoma team he quarterbacked to a national title in 2000. The ability to score big with the backbone of a stout defense.

Just how good was the Tennessee defense? The offense lost fumbles at its 20 and 35, and the game wasn’t really close.

Oklahoma rushed for 36 yards on 34 carries, and never really made any throws of significance ― especially when it mattered. Starting quarterback Jackson Arnold played so poorly, he was benched late in the first half for true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.  

Tennessee has a defensive line that rivals the elite units of the late 1990s under coach Phil Fulmer. They’re athletic and active, and they dictate what offenses can do.

By the end of the game, Heupel did what he has always done at Oklahoma: 10 wins in 10 games as a player, and now one win in one game as a head coach.

Third Down: Utah's statement

So a big game happened in the Big 12, and Utah officially introduced its new league to what its old league was forced to deal with for years.

A tough, talented team doing whatever it takes to win a game.

Like playing nearly flawless on the road in a difficult environment with a backup quarterback playing for the injured star. Or the tight end running Wildcat and scoring a short-yardage touchdown.

Or the defense – the trademark Utah defense – suffocating Oklahoma State in an important conference game that will have lasting impact in the College Football Playoff race.  

You want defense? Utah built a 22-3 lead with six minutes to play, and Oklahoma State had 158 total yards. Then the Utes dialed down the pressure to avoid giving up a big play, and got out of Stillwater with a deceiving 22-19 win.

“Made it a lot more dramatic than we needed to,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said after the game.

But think about this: Utah already has a win against one of the two teams that have the roster to beat the Utes ― and won’t play the other (Kansas State) unless they play in the Big 12 championship game.

In fact, Utah – which should get star quarterback Cam Rising back next week against Arizona – will be favored in all of its remaining games. The most difficult tests remaining appear to be a home game against Iowa State (Nov.23) and a road game against Central Florida (Nov. 29).

More:Is Isaac Wilson related to Zach Wilson? Utah true freshman QB starts vs Oklahoma State

Fourth Down: The rise of ... Vanderbilt?

Diego Pavia deserves better. Better than a hooked chip shot field goal in an overtime loss to Missouri.

Better than the Vanderbilt defense folding with a minute to play in last week’s loss to Georgia State, and giving up a 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive in 55 seconds.

Vanderbilt – yes, Vanderbilt – should be 4-0, and we should all be celebrating the most impactful transfer quarterback of 2024 instead of lamenting same ol’ Vandy.

More impactful than Dillon Gabriel or Will Howard or Riley Leonard ― all of whom landed on ready-made championship teams. Pavia has elevated one of the worst Power Four conference teams into the land of respectability.

But for a missed 31-yard field goal against Missouri, Vanderbilt could have eventually earned another significant upset (Virginia Tech) in the first month of the season behind the quarterback who last went viral for urinating on a rival’s practice field.

Pavia led New Mexico State to 10 wins in 2023, including a 21-point win at Auburn. He arrived at Vandy with former coach Jerry Kill joining Clark Lea's staff, and has immediately changed the way the Commodores think about offense.

In four games, Pavia has accounted for 75.2 percent of Vanderbilt’s production, throwing for 543 yards and four touchdowns, and rushing for 279 yards and two more touchdowns. The Commodores get an open week, before getting another upset opportunity.

Against mighty Alabama on Oct. 5.

The College Football Playoff bracket

Four power conference champions ranked 1-4 with first-round bye, highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion, and seven at-large selections.

(1) Texas

(2) Ohio State

(3) Miami

(4) Utah

(12) Boise State at (5) Georgia

(11) Kansas State at (6) Alabama

(10) Missouri at (7) Tennessee

(9) Oregon at (8) Ole Miss

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB